Friday, July 06, 2007

Free Agent Frenzy

For the first time in recent memory, I was sober enough to remember my Canada Day. I was in Toronto preparing for a big exam, so I made myself a short leash to try to behave on the day where I celebrate the country that I love. I decided to watch TSN's inaugural Free Agent Frenzy day on television. TSN, with high hopes of ratings like those of "trade deadline day", tries to capitalize on the fact that people enjoy watching how to be a manager. With the popularity of fantasy pools and such, people have flocked to watch programs concerning the management of player personel.

Unfortunately, the show was a flop. I am sure the show received decents "numbers", but the actual content made the show fall flat on its face. There were no signings to report during the initial show. The show was excellent in terms of analysis. They described each Canadian teams needs and wants and who they think they will go after. Overall, as an informed sports fan, this information was useless to me.

Given the fact I am a huge Sens fan, I want to comment on the lack of any action on their part to improve the team given recent signings of key free agents.

The Sens have salary cap problems. The Sens are not like New Jersey last year where they are so close to the max that they have to do some creative tinkering, but close enough that they really have to watch what they do in terms of what to offer their key restricted free agents.

The most interesting restricted free agent is Ray Emery. After a very successful year, he is due to receive a huge raise on his $900,000 salary of last year. The Sens dilemma is that they already have a goalie that is priced as a number one. Martin Gerber makes nearly $4 million per season, but will serve as a backup to Ray Emery, if Ray is signed. With the Sens so close to the cap, they cannot afford to pay someone to sit on the bench for that kind of money.

Restricted free agents rarely get contract offers from other teams. This is due to the compensation a team receives when a restricted free agent is lost to another team. However, this week Thomas Vanek received a large offer from the Oilers, and it may not be surprising to see an offer go to Emery.

If Emery does receive a generous offer, I don't think the Sens will match the contract. I believe they will take the compensation they receive. The compensation could be 3 first rounds picks. You could really help the farm system with those kind of resources. In that case, Gerber becomes the number one goalie by default.

Gerber had turned around his season last year, so he may now be ready to take the number one role. It might be easier to get rid of Emery who has value now versus Gerber who apparently only has a mild interest from teams. In addition, the Sens have Jeff Glass in the farm system and he may be ready to be an NHL backup. Jeff Glass played on Canada's gold-medal winning world junior hockey team. He's big, he's athletic, but most importanly, he's cheap. The best case scenario, in my mind for the Sens, is that someone offers Ray Emery a big contract, Ottawa passes on the right to match the contract, receives compensation, uses Gerber as a number 1 and uses Jeff Glass as a number two.

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